The current Congress led UPA government made a surprise comeback in the Indian Parliament some 4 years back, as a result of the "media mis-management" of then BJP led NDA government, that is, the "India Shining" Campaign.
Now, the elections seem to be inevitable in India.
The LEFT parties, who have given an outside support to the UPA government, have found the much touted and the "pet" of PM Manmohan Singh, the N-Deal with the USA, to their dislike because of their their Marksist ideology which makes them "hate" the United States of America. So, the current UPA government deciding to go-ahead with this deal, by approaching the IAEA for further negotiations in respect to the deal, had left the LEFT parties with no other option but to take back their support to the UPA.
The Congress Government, which has invested a lot of time and energy, for this deal has no other option but to "conclude" this deal, as the Bush Administration will leave office by January 2009. So, this "hurry" of the UPA government to go ahead with the deal, much to the dislike of the LEFT parties.
There has been much talk of replacing PM Manmohan Singh from the PM's post, as it was viewed as if he was making this INDO-US nuclear deal, as his personal prestige issue. But, it seems that the UPA govenment would not survive considering todays political scenario, even if they make PM MMS as a scape goat.
To their disadvantage, the UPA allies fear that they might not have any chance in the event elections are held, considering the "High Inflation" that the country is reeling in, courtesy the "Abnormally High Oil prices" worldwide.
The sudden and surprise exit of the BSP's Mayawati from the Government, have come as a rude "shock" to the Congress High Command. Nor, can they now expect any support from the Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav, which may help them secure the much needed "numbers" on the floor of the Parliament, for the government to survive.
After having listened to the "stubborn Left" arguements, probably Sonia Gandhi has come to the conclusion that General Elections in the country in November-December 2008 are inevitable. Hence, one can understand the decision of Sonia Gandhi asking her party workers across the country to start thinking about the "General Elections".
I am of the view that if the General Elections are held in November-December 2008, then Congress party will be on a Slippery Ground. I say so, because of the High Inflation Figures, which according to the FM Chidambaram, will remain for few more months. Congress Party will surely have a tough time in gaining the confidence of the people. Also, Congress Party will have to face this scenario that it has taken the country to elections, just because of a "N-Deal". Surely a tough time to be a congressman.
In some states like Andhra Pradesh, where many new political parties are prolifering, like Megastar of telugu film industry, Chiranjeevi plunging into politics, and Devender Goud leaving TDP and making his own party on the issue of Separate State of Telengana State, and BSP Mayawati making some "noises" sometime back of her interest to enter the state, will surely make a dent in the vote share of both Congress Party and Telugu Desam Party.
In Tamil Nadu, since at present DMK is ruling, i expect the AIADMK making their "presence felt" in the upcoming General Elections, as history has shown us that DMK and AIADMK rule "the state turn by turn". This could be good news for the BJP, if they can find an ally in AIADMK's J. Jayalalitha.
BJP on the other hand, seems to be on a very good ground. It has won the just concluded Karnataka State Elections, and has successfully formed the government on its own. This gives it a clear advantage, as the morael of the workers is very high.
If somehow, the BJP can take Uma Bharathi, who had left the party because of a petty incident in front of the media cameras, that would be a big bonus for the BJP. Uma Bharathi surely is a force to reckon with in Madhya Pradesh. Dont forget the mercurial and charasmatic Narendra Modi of Gujarat, who can single handedly turn the fortunes of the BJP, in the National Level.
Advani also seems to have "Confidently", embraced "Again" the "Ram Temple" issue. So, i guess BJP will try to take the "Hindutva" way, while going in for this elections.
But the fate of the country has always been decided by the state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum number of the MPs in the country in the parliament. So, this decision of the BSP to take back the support from the UPA, making Inflation as a reason, would obviously "deprive" the UPA of a potential ally in the General Elections.
The Samajwadi Party seems to be planning a "Third Front" with other regional parties like TDP, AIADMK, etc. Curiously, the LEFT parties have also evinced their interest in giving the country a "third alternative".
So, the General Elections have again brought the country in a "political maze", and the thinking heads of all the political parties would be scratching their heads, to make sure that their respective parties are getting that much coveted seat of power in the Indian Parliament.
Surely, for a part-time political observer like me, this time is a bonanza time, as possibly i get to see the festival of democracy being held in India in Nov-Dec,2008.
Surely, we may see another coalition government post these elections, if they become a reality. I would go for the BJP led NDA government this time.
But at the same time, i feel sad that there are very many political parties in the country. Surely, the current form of the Indian Democracy is the "Best form of Democracy" in the world. But, i guess now a stage has come, wherein the existence of so many parties has become much of a liability, than an asset.
According to me, a "Democratic Form of System" in a country, should give "government" which can "rule the country" efficiently, without subjecting the country in some "needless" political uncertainities.
It surely is a sad state of affairs, that this country has to undergo mid-elections again, just because of one reason, which is the N-Deal with the US.
I guess, its time we have a PRESIDENTIAL FORM OF GOVERNMENT, wherein Two Parties fight it out as to who will rule the country. I would not think the current US Presedential Form of Government would be applicable to India.
But essentially, this Presidential Form of Government has to be "taylored" to Indian Conditions, taking into the "Democratic Principles" that the current Indian Society enjoys.
I would like reserve my views, on how i would want to see this "Indianized Presidential Form of Government", for some other occassion.
For now, i would enjoy the "Democratic Process" in India, wherein there would be more and more public discourses, Rath Yatras, slogans, tie ups and break ups, spin doctors projecting their candidates as the best face available for the country, mud-slinging, word wars, and some "tension filled constitutencies".
Happy Democracy Festival of India !

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